Kendall Guillemette and Harry Pavlidis discuss baseball statistics, as well as look for the stories and people behind the stats.
June 14th, 2018 | 1 hr 10 mins
baseball, home runs, knitting, mlb
Talking about the materials that make up a baseball with Dr. Meredith Wills. We also revisit two-way players, dig into defensive metrics and why they're difficult, and are reminded that everything old is new again.
May 31st, 2018 | 1 hr 11 mins
baseball, cbs sports, mlb, mlb draft
R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports came on to talk with us about the Rays recent usage of Sergio Romo as a starting pitcher. We talk about whether this concept will continue and if there may be other teams willing to try it out. We also talk with Anthony Rescan about his Baseball Prospectus Intern project for calculating surplus draft value. We threw in a handful of things we've learned over the last few weeks including tidbits about Kendrys Morales, Jordan Hicks, and the predictive value of xStats.
May 24th, 2018 | 1 hr 51 mins
baseball, home runs, mlb
We discuss the Report of the Committee Studying Home Run Rates in Major League Baseball released on May 24, 2018. We talk with committee chair Dr. Alan Nathan, and committee member Dr. Dan Brooks as well as radar and target tracking research engineer, Dr. Sean O'Rourke. We examine what the report is saying and what it means going forward.
May 17th, 2018 | 1 hr 14 mins
baseball, pitching, statistics
Sam Miller joined us to talk about his recent article about evaluating Statcast's new Pop Time metric. Surprising exactly no one, we also talk about Shohei Ohtani, again. And take a look at Robinson Cańo's Hall of Fame candidacy.
April 5th, 2018 | 1 hr 1 min
baseball, mlb, world series
Baseball is back and we're all so glad.
March 15th, 2018 | 1 hr 21 mins
baseball, mlb, pitching, radar
2:32 Revisiting PECOTA team projections
10:44 Announce winners of The Shift by Russell A. Carleton giveaway
14:40 Spin Rates and Pitch Design with Jeff Long
1:08:45 More juiced ball talk (h/t Rob Arthur)
February 28th, 2018 | 1 hr 5 mins
ballparks, baseball, mlb, pitching
When we talk about park adjusted stats, and park factors, what does all of that mean? How do we arrive at those numbers and how do we account for changes over time? We also talk about "pitch design" and how that combines analytical data and player development.
February 15th, 2018 | 1 hr 16 mins
baseball, mlb, pecota, projections
We talk with Jonathan Judge and Rob McQuown, who oversee Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections to get some more insight into how the projections are made, what's new this year, and of course hip hop.
January 31st, 2018 | 1 hr 4 mins
baseball, mlb, pitching, radar, umpires
We talk to Jeff Long, Sean O'Rourke, Wayne Boyle, and Russell Carleton about their recent Pitching Week article about the Robot Strikezone and Robot Umpires.
January 18th, 2018 | 57 mins 45 secs
baseball, mlb, pitching, sabermetrics
Stolen Signs is back. Harry and Kendall talk about the slow offseason, collusion and ideas on how to change the economics of baseball. After a short break (14:05) they discuss new research by Duke University that looks into neurological and motor skills and how they translate to baseball production, a new smart baseball that can provide some pitch tracking and tease some new work by the stats team at Baseball Prospectus. To wrap up (32:00), a look into the state of pitching and try to talk about what an inning(s) eater is and also what an ace is.
December 22nd, 2017 | 1 hr 42 mins
baseball, hall of fame, miami marlins, pitching, shohei otani
We touch on many issues of the day as we wrap up 2017 in style.
[3:10] - Marlins firesale fallout
[17:05] - Bob Bowman forced out at MLBAM
[23:38] - Shohei Ohtani ZIPS, Steamer and PECOTA projections
[35:20] - Long form movement article from Jeff Long
[51:00] - Major League Baseball's Statcast Can Break Sabermetrics by Emma Baccellieri
[1:19:20] - Hall of Fame discussion
December 7th, 2017 | 1 hr 23 mins
baseball, japanese baseball, mlb, ohtani
We talk with Ben Lindbergh and Kaz Yamazaki about the NPB posting system, differences between the mounds, balls, culture of MLB and NPB and dig a little deeper into some of the myths about Japanese pitchers coming over to MLB. We also look into the current state of the sabermetric community in Japan.
Episode 13: Wins Above Replacement discussion with Sean Forman (bWAR), David Cameron (fWAR), Greg Matthews (openWAR), Rob McQuown and Jonathan Judge (WARP)
November 29th, 2017 | 1 hr 2 mins
baseball, sabermetrics, statistics, wins above replacement
We welcome Sean Forman from Baseball Reference, David Cameron from FanGraphs, Greg Matthews from openWAR, Rob McQuown and Jonathan Judge from Baseball Prospectus to the show.
With all the recent discussion about Wins Above Replacement statistics, we wanted to get people who create and maintain the statistics together to talk about how their respective stats are created and calculated. We talk about what replacement level is, positional adjustments, how to accurately portray confidence in the precision of the statistic.
November 16th, 2017 | 1 hr 25 mins
baseball, pitching, statistics
Harry and Kendall look back at the World Series, discuss the Cy Young awards and the BBWAA vote has lined up with BP's pitching metrics over the past few years.
Next up is a preview of some new pitching statistics that the Baseball Prospectus stats team is working on and why that's proven to be a challenge. Harry gives a look into how these statistics are imagined, designed, tested, and tweaked throughout the process.
October 26th, 2017 | 1 hr 2 mins
baseball, pitching, world series
This week Harry and Kendall talk to Jarrett Seidler from the Baseball Prospectus Prospects team about the cyclical nature of baseball in general, and analytics specifically.
Harry and Kendall also take a closer look at how pitchers end up in their eventual roles and examine their route to get there. For this exercise they looked at pitchers with a debut season of > 20 IP as a reliever, and fewer starter innings than reliever innings in that year and then went on to log > 75 IP as a starter in a subsequent season, with fewer reliever than starting innings. Check out the spreadsheet.
This Week I Learned:
Harry - A look into research done with Kate Morrison for Ben Lindbergh's Ringer piece about Dallas Keuchel and the Dodgers - https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2017/10/24/16533310/houston-astros-los-angeles-dodgers-dallas-keuchel-kryptonite
Kendall - Is it possible that Major League Baseball is coming to Portland? - http://www.baseballamerica.com/columnists/expansion-trigger-realignment-longer-postseason/#IpHtEd8vb3JeJHOB.97
October 12th, 2017 | 1 hr 16 mins
baseball, projection, sabermetrics, stats
We start by talking about projection systems in general, then dive into 2017 PECOTA team projections. We look to see how adding in actual playing time affects the team totals. Then we talk about individual players that out-performed and under-performed their PECOTA projections.
This Week I Learned:
Harry learns that "bullpenning" is a thing, sort of, maybe, kind of. (h/t Matt Trueblood)
Kendall learns to make adjustments in parenting, just like hitters like Mike Trout have had to make adjustments to high fastballs. (h/t to Jeff Sullivan)